Former President Donald Trump will have an advantage in the 2024 presidential election with a third-party candidate on the ballot, according to new evidence.

An analysis from FiveThirtyEight found: “Faced with the prospect of a rematch between President Biden and former President Donald Trump, at least two alternatives have already emerged: The bipartisan No Labels organization is working toward fielding a centrist presidential ticket, while Cornel West, a well-known public intellectual and political progressive, has launched a bid for the Green Party’s nomination.”

“Initial evidence suggests that in a rematch between Biden and Trump, a No Labels and/or West campaign could pull marginal support from Biden and subtly shift the election toward Trump. Whether this would actually make for a potential spoiler, though, is a different question: History — and common sense — suggest that these possible third-party candidates would be most likely to affect the outcome if the overall race were close. But in our deeply divided political era, close elections have been the norm, which makes a spoiler candidacy a live possibility,” the outlet added.

Early surveys have found that Independents and a Third Party run could help Trump in 2024.

Since May, several national surveys have tested Biden against Trump head-to-head and with the possibility of a Third-Party or Independent candidate:

POLL DATES 3RD PARTY OR INDEPENDENT WITHOUT 3RD/IND. WITH 3RD/IND. CHANGE

–RMG Research May 22-24 Joe Manchin D+1 R+2 R+3

–Echelon Insights May 22-25 Joe Manchin D+2 R+1 R+3

–Data for Progress May 25-June 5 Larry Hogan D+2 EVEN R+2

–Emerson College June 19-20 Cornel West EVEN R+1 R+1

–Echelon Insights June 26-29 Cornel West D+1 R+1 R+2

“These surveys offer different explanations for the small shift in margin toward Trump when a third-party option is included. Across the polls, Trump tended to more firmly hold on to Republicans than Biden did Democrats, while the shifts in preferences among independents were inconsistent. Data for Progress’s poll examining Hogan’s possible impact found that Trump benefited from Biden’s reduced advantage among independents, while Echelon Insights’ survey testing Manchin found more Democrats broke away from Biden to select Manchin than Republicans left Trump,” FiveThirtyEight reported.

“Meanwhile, polls from Emerson College and Echelon Insights measuring West’s impact found the progressive mainly cutting into Biden’s support among Democrats, although the Emerson survey also showed more independents shifting away from Biden than Trump,” the outlet added.

Kellyanne Conway, a former member of the Trump White House staff, thinks that Trump will have a significant advantage in the 2024 presidential election with a third-party candidate on the ballot

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Conway discussed Cornel West’s announcement that he will run for president in 2024 during a Fox News appearance. Conway, who currently contributes to Fox News, said that she could envision West’s third-party bid harming President Joe Biden’s prospects of winning re-election.

Conway agreed with the premise, saying that “even if you don’t become president, you as a third party candidate spoiler can decide who is the president. This happened in 1992 when we had Bush 41 as the incumbent and a guy named Bill Clinton the Arkansas governor got elected with 43 and a half percent of the vote. Why? because Ross Perot got 19 percent of the popular vote even though he did not rack up any electoral votes.”

“If you play to win and you are Cornel West and you are still not satisfied with the trajectory of the Democratic Party being progressive enough for you under a Biden-Harris administration, then you’ll run to the left of them,” Conway said.

“Number two, he will make a play for people who feel forgotten and feel abandoned by this Democratic Party and feel like nobody is listening to them and including them. That’s part of how Trump won in 2016, but I think he can do it from the Left,” she concluded.

A recent Emerson College national poll found that a third-party candidate would drag Biden down in a rematch with Trump in 2024.

According to polls, respondents are evenly divided in their support for Biden and Trump, 44 percent to 43 percent. While 4% of respondents indicated they are unsure, 9% stated they would cast their ballot for a different candidate.

But if third-party candidate Cornel West is on the ballot with Trump and Biden, he garners 6% more votes, bringing Biden’s support down to 40%, only 1% below Trump’s 41 percent.

Six percent are unsure, while seven percent say they would cast their ballot for a different candidate.

“When West is added to the ballot test, he pulls 15 percent of support from Black voters, and 13 percent from voters under 35, two key voting blocs for President Biden,” said Spencer Kimball, the director of Emerson College Polling.

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