A veteran Democratic senator is in danger of losing his seat, according to a new 2024 survey putting him behind a GOP challenger.
“Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown is running within the margin of error against all three of his declared Republican challengers, the first poll of his 2024 race shows,” The Daily Caller reported last week.
Brown, presently in his third term in the U.S. Senate, is currently the sole Democrat holding statewide elected office in Ohio.
According to a poll conducted by East Carolina University, he is leading businessman Bernie Moreno by a margin of 46-42, state Sen. Matt Dolan by a margin of 45-44, and Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose by a margin of 44-42. All three matchups fall within the poll’s four percent margin of error.
The outlet added:
Both Dolan and Moreno ran in the 2022 GOP Senate primary to replace retiring Sen. Rob Portman. Dolan finished third, behind JD Vance and Josh Mandel, while Moreno dropped out early. Dolan, whose family is worth $5.2 billion, is expected to spend large sums of his own money throughout the 2024 cycle. He shelled out $10.6 million during the 2022 campaign.
When Brown assumed office in 2007, Ohio had a Democratic governor and a congressional delegation split of 11-7 in favor of the GOP. However, the current political landscape in the state has shifted, with a Republican governor and a delegation split of 10-5 in favor of Republicans, the Daily Caller reported.
In the 2022 election, GOP Gov. Mike DeWine won a resounding victory with a 25-point margin of victory. Additionally, state Attorney General Dave Yost and Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose won their respective races by 20 points.
Former President Donald Trump won Ohio twice – in 2016 and 2020 — as the state continues to trend red. Trump-backed author J.D. Vance, also a Republican, won his race last year to begin his first term as a U.S. senator.
This time around, Trump will be saddled with legal issues including, so far, a pair of indictments, one in Manhattan and the other involving federal charges of mishandling classified information.
But that hasn’t appeared to hinder his popularity. In fact, the appearance that he is being politically persecuted seems to have helped his polling numbers.
In mid-June, a CBS News poll found that the former president dominated the Republican primary with 61 percent of support, leading his next-closest opponent, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, by a significant margin of 38 points.
Meanwhile, Sen. Tim Scott (SC) secured third place with just 4 percent support, edging out former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley by one point.
CBS News added:
Republican primary voters say they’re far more concerned that Donald Trump’s indictment is politically motivated than his alleged conduct being a national security risk – and there’s no evidence it’s hurt his status as the clear front-runner for the 2024 nomination, at least not yet. He remains well ahead of rivals in both consideration and vote choice.
In fact, most Republican primary voters would not generally consider him keeping the alleged documents with nuclear systems or military plans to be a national security risk, in and of itself.
Most explicitly ruled out the charges announced in the indictment changing their views about Mr. Trump. Rather than being disqualifying in their eyes, even if he’s ultimately convicted of a crime in the matter, they overwhelmingly feel he should still be able to serve as president again.